Nikkei – 15/1

Nikkei is at 2-year highs. Markets discount further policy measures by Bank of Japan to spur growth and fight deflation. These expectations have led to a weak Yen (at 2,5 year lows vs the USD) which in turn benefits shares of Japanese exporters and the Nikkei as a whole.

We advise taking profits on existing long positions, because the 2011-high at 10.887 was surpassed on Tuesday but not on a closing basis. Also the whole V-shaped upmove of the last months has created a very overbought condition which will have to be worked out either by price or by time.

If 10.900 is clearly taken out, major resistance will be found between 11.000 and 11.408, the 2010 highs.

In my opinion, the next big support is at 10.200 (December 2012 gaps, April 2012 and July 2011 high), so the risk/reward does not justify any long positions either.